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Both
the left and the right say they stand for economic growth.
So should voters trying to decide between the two simply
look at it as a matter of choosing alternative management
teams?
If only
matters were so easy! Part of the problem concerns the role
of luck. America’s economy was blessed in the 1990s with low
energy prices, a high pace of innovation, and a China
increasingly offering high-quality goods at decreasing
prices, all of which combined to produce low inflation and
rapid growth.
President Clinton, and the then-Chairman of the US Federal
Reserve, Alan Greenspan, deserve little credit for this -
though, to be sure, bad policies could have messed things
up. By contrast, the problems faced today - high energy and
food prices and a crumbling financial system - have, to a
large extent, been brought about by bad policies.
There
are, indeed, big differences in growth strategies,
which make different outcomes highly likely. The first
difference concerns how growth itself is conceived.
Growth
is not just a matter of increasing GDP. It must be
sustainable: growth based on environmental degradation, a
debt-financed consumption binge, or the exploitation of
scarce natural resources, without reinvesting the proceeds,
is not sustainable.
Growth
also must be inclusive; at least a majority of citizens must
benefit. Trickle-down economics does not work: an increase
in GDP can actually leave most citizens worse off. America’s
recent growth was neither economically sustainable nor
inclusive.
But
there need not be a trade-off between inequality and growth.
Governments can enhance growth by increasing inclusiveness.
A country’s most valuable resource is its people. So it is
essential to ensure that everyone can live up to
their potential, which requires educational opportunities
for all.
A
modern economy also requires risk-taking. Individuals are
more willing to take risks if there is a good safety net. If
not, citizens may demand protection from foreign
competition. Social protection is more efficient than
protectionism.
Failures to promote social solidarity can have other costs,
not the least of which are the social and private
expenditures required to protect property and incarcerate
criminals. It is estimated that within a few years, America
will have more people working in the security business than
in education. A year in prison can cost more than a year at
Harvard. The cost of incarcerating two million Americans -
one of the highest per capita rates in the world - should be
viewed as a subtraction from GDP, yet it is added on.
A
second major difference between left and right concerns the
role of the state in promoting development. The left
understands that the government’s role in providing
infrastructure and education, developing technology, and
even acting as an entrepreneur is vital. Government laid the
foundations of the Internet and the modern biotechnology
revolutions. In the 19th Century, research at America’s
government-supported universities provided the basis for the
agricultural revolution. Government then brought these
advances to millions of American farmers. Small business
loans have been pivotal in creating not only new businesses,
but whole new industries.
The
final difference may seem odd: the left now understands
markets, and the role that they can and should play in the
economy. The right, especially in America, does not. The new
right, typified by the Bush-Cheney administration, is really
old corporatism in a new guise.
These
are not libertarians. They believe in a strong state with
robust executive powers, but one used in defence of
established interests, with little attention to market
principles. The list of examples is long, but it includes
subsidies to large corporate farms, tariffs to protect the
steel industry, and, most recently, the mega-bail-outs of
Bear Stearns, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac. But the
inconsistency between rhetoric and reality is long-standing:
protectionism expanded under Reagan, including through the
imposition of so-called voluntary export restraints on
Japanese cars.
By
contrast, the new left is trying to make markets work.
Unfettered markets do not operate well on their own - a
conclusion reinforced by the current financial debacle.
Defenders of markets sometimes admit that they do fail, even
disastrously, but they claim that markets are
“self-correcting.”
During
the Great Depression, similar arguments were heard:
government need not do anything, because markets would
restore the economy to full employment in the long run. But,
as John Maynard Keynes famously put it, in the long run we
are all dead.
Markets
are not self-correcting in the relevant time frame. No
government can sit idly by as a country goes into recession
or depression, even when caused by the excessive greed of
bankers or misjudgment of risks by security markets and
rating agencies. But if governments are going to pay the
economy’s hospital bills, they must act to make it less
likely that hospitalization will be needed. The right’s
deregulation mantra was simply wrong, and we are now paying
the price. And the price tag - in terms of lost output -
will be high, perhaps more than 1.5 trillion dollars in the
United States alone.
The
right often traces its intellectual parentage to Adam Smith,
but while Smith recognized the power of markets, he also
recognized their limits. Even in his era, businesses found
that they could increase profits more easily by conspiring
to raise prices than by producing innovative products more
efficiently. There is a need for strong anti-trust laws.
It is
easy to host a party. For the moment, everyone can feel
good. Promoting sustainable growth is much harder. Today, in
contrast to the right, the left has a coherent agenda, one
that offers not only higher growth, but also social justice.
For voters, the choice should be easy.
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