|
The world
economy has seen globalization collapse once again. The gold
standard era - with its free capital mobility and open trade
- came to an abrupt end in 1914 and could not be
resuscitated after World War I. Are we about to witness a
similar global economic breakdown?
The
question is not fanciful. Although economic globalization
has enabled unprecedented levels of prosperity in advanced
countries and has been a boon to hundreds of millions of
poor workers in China and elsewhere in Asia, it rests on
shaky pillars. Unlike national markets, which tend to be
supported by domestic regulatory and political institutions,
global markets are only "weakly embedded." There is no
global anti-trust authority, no global lender of last
resort, no global regulator, no global safety nets, and, of
course, no global democracy. In other words, global markets
suffer from weak governance, and therefore from weak popular
legitimacy.
Recent
events have heightened the urgency with which these issues
are discussed. The presidential electoral campaign in the
United States has highlighted the frailty of the support for
open trade in the world's most powerful nations. The
sub-prime mortgage crisis has shown how lack of
international coordination and regulation can exacerbate the
inherent fragility of financial markets. The rise in food
prices has exposed the downside of economic interdependence
without global transfer and compensation schemes.
Meanwhile, rising oil prices have increased transport costs,
leading analysts to wonder whether the outsourcing era is
coming to an end. And there is always the looming disaster
of climate change, which may well be the most serious threat
the world has ever faced.
If
globalization is in danger, who are the real enemies?
There was
a time when global elites could comfort themselves with the
thought that opposition to the world trading regime
consisted of violent anarchists, self-serving
protectionists, trade unionists, and ignorant, if not
idealistic youths. Meanwhile, they regarded themselves as
the true progressors, because they understood that
safeguarding and advancing globalization was the best remedy
against poverty and insecurity.
But that
self-assured attitude has all but disappeared, replaced by
doubts, questions, and scepticism. Gone also are the violent
street protests and mass movements against globalization.
What makes news nowadays is the growing list of mainstream
economists who are questioning globalization's supposedly
unmitigated virtues.
We have
Paul Samuelson, the author of the post-war era's landmark
economics textbook, reminding his fellow economists that
China's gains in globalization may well come at the expense
of the US; Paul Krugman, today's foremost international
trade theorist, arguing that trade with low-income countries
is no longer too small to have an effect on inequality; Alan
Blinder, a former US Federal Reserve vice chairman, worrying
that international outsourcing will cause unprecedented
dislocations for the US labour force; Martin Wolf, the
Financial Times columnist and one of the most articulate
advocates of globalization, writing of his disappointment
with how financial globalization has turned out; and Larry
Summers, the US Treasury chief and the Clinton's
administrator "Mr. Globalization," musing about the dangers
of a race to the bottom in national regulations and the need
for international labour standards.
While
these worries hardly amount to the full frontal attack
mounted by the likes of Joseph Stiglitz, the Nobel-prize
winning economist, they still constitute a remarkable
turnaround in the intellectual climate. Moreover, even those
who have not lost heart often disagree vehemently about the
direction in which they would like to see globalization go.
For
example, Jagdish Bhagwati, the distinguished free trader,
and Fred Bergsten, the director of the pro-globalization
Peterson Institute for International Economics, have both
been on the frontlines arguing that critics vastly
exaggerate globalization's ills and under-estimate its
benefits. But their debates on the merits of regional trade
agreements - Bergsten for, Bhagwati against - are as heated
as each one's disagreements with the authors mentioned
above.
None of
these intellectuals is against globalization, of course.
What they want is not to turn back globalization, but to
create new institutions and compensation mechanisms - at
home or internationally - that will render globalization
more effective, fairer, and more sustainable. Their policy
proposals are often vague (when specified at all), and
command little consensus. But confrontation over
globalization has clearly moved well beyond the streets to
the columns of the financial press and the rostrums of
mainstream think-tanks.
This is
an important point for globalization's cheerleaders to
understand, as they often behave as if the "other side"
still consists of protectionists and anarchists. Today, the
question is no longer, "Are you for or against
globalization?" The question is, "What should the rules of
globalization be?" The cheerleaders' true sparring partners
today are not rock-throwing youths but their fellow
intellectuals.
The first
three decades after 1945 were governed by the Bretton Woods
consensus - a shallow multilateralism that permitted
policymakers to focus on domestic social and employment
needs while enabling global trade to recover and flourish.
This regime was superseded in the 1980s and 1990s by an
agenda of deeper liberalization and economic integration.
That
model, we have learned, is unsustainable. If globalization
is to survive, it will need a new intellectual consensus to
underpin it. The world economy desperately awaits its new
Keynes.
|